Rotella has a theory, that you score in your comfort zone.
If you expect to score 85 and are +2 after 9 holes, you start to play bad to stay in your scoring comfort zone.
If you are +11 after 9 holes you suddenly start to play better to achieve it.
The way I see it is that handicap golfers are likely to make x amount of mistakes in a round, and they could happen anywhere.